Bahrain GP Post-Race Research

Race Overview

Circuit: Sepang International Circuit, Sepang, Malaysia (the Bahrain GP, relocated after the April cancellation) Laps: 55 (5.543 km lap, ~304.9 km). The picks files planned for 56 laps. 2025 Winner: Oscar Piastri (McLaren), at Sakhir. The last F1 race at Sepang was the 2017 Malaysian GP, won by Max Verstappen. 2026 Winner: Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing), from pole, 2.307s clear of Antonelli. It was his first win of 2026, the 72nd of his career, and the first win for Red Bull’s own Ford-backed power unit. Pole: Max Verstappen, 1:35.130, 0.298 clear of Hamilton. His first pole of 2026, and the power unit’s first pole too. Fastest Lap: Max Verstappen, 1:38.220 (Lap 55) Driver of the Day: Max Verstappen (P1 → P1), 25.9%, just ahead of Hamilton’s 25.3% (Alonso 11.2%) Safety Cars: The start was suspended after power-unit software glitches on the formation laps · 2 full SC (Bottas’s spin, lap 9; Albon’s stranded Williams, nine laps from the end) · a neutralisation in the first 15 laps Classified Finishers: 20 (Russell is classified P20 after his power-unit failure; Albon and Bottas retired)

Heavy rain, thunder and lightning arrived as the drivers went to the dummy grid, and the race finished almost three and a half hours after its scheduled start. The cars ran at least two formation laps behind the safety car. Midway through the first one, Verstappen reported a loss of power and Hamilton a throttle problem, and Ferrari-powered Haas and Cadillac cars also stopped briefly. Race Control suspended the start, and the FIA issued engine-software changes after what it called an “unprecedented” glitch.

The race was then decided by a single tyre call. 13 of the 22 drivers started on slicks, including both Ferraris and both McLarens. Verstappen and both Mercedes stayed on intermediates. Both Mercedes beat Verstappen into Turn 1, and he passed them both by the first restart and was never headed again. Hamilton fell from the front row to about P17, more than a minute behind. The lap-9 safety car let him recover, and he passed Hadjar after the final restart to finish P3, ending Ferrari’s five-race podium drought. Russell was running P3 when his power unit failed under the second safety car, which ended his title hopes and sends him to the back of the grid for Sunday’s Singapore GP.

Full Race Classification

Pos	Driver	Team	Notes
1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull Racing	Won by 2.307s, from pole, with fastest lap and Driver of the Day. Lost the lead to both Mercedes at the start on intermediates, then took it back by the first restart
2	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	+2.307. Led into Turn 1. “Today was the maximum we could’ve done.” Title lead now 84
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	+4.919. Front row to about P17 on the slick gamble, then back to P3. “Bittersweet.” Ferrari’s first podium in five races
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	+7.258. Pitted early for intermediates and recovered. Passed Hadjar late
5	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull Racing	+8.571. Qualified P3, started P8 (seventh ICE). Passed by both Ferraris after the final restart: “I had no battery”
6	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	+9.454. Pitted for intermediates at the end of the formation lap, abandoning McLaren’s slick call
7	Liam Lawson	Racing Bulls	+12.753. “One of the best starts” of his career. P11 → P7
8	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	+13.372. His best result of the season, and Aston Martin’s best weekend
9	Lando Norris	McLaren	+13.993. Stayed out on slicks and fell to P15. Then ran wide through the Turn 1 gravel from P7 just after Russell stopped
10	Arvid Lindblad	Racing Bulls	+15.928. Started last with a 30-place penalty. Credited the team’s intermediate call
11	Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	+17.404. Both Audis pitted for intermediates on the grid lap
12	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	+18.052
13	Franco Colapinto	Alpine	+18.997. 15-place drop (5 for Baku + 10 for new power-unit parts)
14	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	+22.305
15	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	+22.532
16	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	+23.315. Qualified P9
17	Carlos Sainz	Williams	+25.431
18	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	+28.233. Qualified P10
19	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	+29.310
20	George Russell	Mercedes	49 laps. Power-unit failure while running P3 under the second safety car. Classified. “It’s unfortunately happened too many times this season”
DNF	Alexander Albon	Williams	Stranded car, causing the second safety car
DNF	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	Spun into the gravel on lap 9, causing the first safety car

Qualifying Grid (Top 10)

Pos	Driver	Team	Notes
P1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull Racing	Pole, 1:35.130. His first of 2026 and the Red Bull Ford power unit’s first
P2	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	1:35.428. “We did a really good job yesterday”
P3	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull Racing	1:35.558. Started P8 with a five-place drop for a seventh ICE, inherited partly from Lawson’s three races in his car
P4	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	1:35.631. Started P3 after Hadjar’s drop
P5	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	1:35.666
P6	Lando Norris	McLaren	1:35.757
P7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	1:35.762, 0.005 behind Norris
P8	George Russell	Mercedes	1:35.871. Mercedes’ upgrade didn’t deliver the ~0.3s expected. Wolff called the qualifying “very difficult to understand”
P9	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	1:37.210
P10	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	1:37.673

Notable Q1/Q2 eliminations: Lindblad (P16) reached Q2 and then gave Lawson a tow instead of setting a time, since his 30-place penalty (fifth ICE, turbocharger and exhaust) made his own grid slot irrelevant. Lawson still missed Q3 by about two tenths (P11). Colapinto (P15) also set no Q2 time ahead of his 15-place drop. Alonso, Sainz and Stroll went out in Q2. Hülkenberg (P17), Bearman, Ocon, Albon, Bottas and Pérez went out in Q1. Six teams put a car into Q3: Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren, Alpine and Audi.

Key Stories

Russell’s power unit fails, his title bid ends, and he starts Sunday’s Singapore race from the back. Russell was running P3 with six laps left when he stopped under the second safety car. It is his second power-unit retirement of the season, after the battery failure while leading in Montreal, and his third non-finish. Wolff confirmed a power-unit failure, “not caused by the safety car”, with the cause not yet known. Russell has used his four-unit allocation, so the replacement brings a penalty at Singapore: at least ten places, and the back of the grid on Sunday, depending on what Mercedes fit. The penalty applies to the Grand Prix only, not the sprint. That also brings forward a penalty the R16 picks file expected in the Americas.

“Another failure, when we were on course for a pretty certain podium… It’s unfortunately happened too many times this season.” — George Russell

“It’s a power unit failure. It wasn’t caused by the safety car. We haven’t assessed it yet.” — Toto Wolff

“This is not the place where you want to take a grid penalty because it is difficult to overtake in Singapore.” — Craig Slater, Sky Sports News

For fantasy: The Mercedes constructor we own takes the hit twice. It scored 39 here with Russell at −5, and at Singapore it starts with one car at the back of a street-circuit grid on Sunday. Reports differ on the ADUO power-unit upgrade. Sky says Mercedes may bring it forward to Singapore. Motorsport.com quotes Bradley Lord on a “double whammy” if taking the penalty early means Russell misses the upgrade. And Mercedes’ Sepang aero upgrade underperformed, so they will compare new and old specifications across the two cars at Singapore. Mercedes’ slot is weaker going into R17 than at any point since we bought it.

Red Bull win on strategy and pace, and the power unit delivers its first pole and win. Verstappen took pole by 0.298s on Saturday and made the right tyre call on Sunday. Red Bull scored 35 GP points, the most of the round, with Hadjar losing a probable podium after the final restart. Mekies said the turnaround came from steady progress in both the chassis and power-unit programmes, “rather than a single magic upgrade”. Leclerc’s verdict was “Red Bull always gets it right.”

“To win our first race in our first year with our own power unit is pretty impressive.” — Max Verstappen

“I had no battery, something like that. So there was no contest against the Ferraris in the straight… really one race to put in the bin.” — Isack Hadjar

For fantasy: Verstappen has scored 37 · 38 · 43 · 57 in the last four rounds and took Driver of the Day (+10) again. That confirms the +12 residual in content/fantasy/R16-Results.md was DotD plus 2 overtakes. Hadjar is the risk inside the Red Bull pair. He is on his seventh ICE of four, partly because Lawson’s three races in his car count against him (“changing the driver does not reset the permitted number of parts”), so every further power-unit change is another five-place drop. Red Bull has not said whether he needs one at Singapore. Mekies also admitted that “not everything went well with his car”, and Red Bull are investigating why his performance dropped.

Ferrari’s slick gamble cost Hamilton a likely win, and the car looks like a winner again. Hamilton qualified on the front row, 0.298s off pole, and said the car “felt good in the race”. He came back from about P17 and a minute down to finish P3, ahead of Leclerc. Vasseur first defended the call (“50% of the cars went for slicks, 50% for wet”), then conceded that “it would have been much better for us to start with inter”. Ferrari took no power-unit penalty again. Both cars still have no spare parts. Betting previews make Ferrari 5/2 to provide the Singapore winner.

“We had an opportunity and ultimately didn’t maximise it… I didn’t think that I’d be able to get back to third place.” — Lewis Hamilton

“It was not the right call, that it would have been much better for us to start with inter.” — Fred Vasseur

For fantasy: Ferrari scored +80 from a race in which both cars started on the wrong tyres. We sold the constructor for Mercedes one round ago, and the swap cost 41 points on this round. Hamilton missed Driver of the Day by 0.6 points of vote share, and that +10 swing would have been his. At $24.3M he is now 17.6 pts/$M, the second-best driver value after Antonelli, and his price has fallen three rounds running. If the Mercedes slot goes at R17, Ferrari ($27.9M) is the direct replacement, and it frees $6.1M.

McLaren are now fourth, by their own account. McLaren also started both cars on slicks. Piastri pitted for intermediates at the end of the formation lap. Norris stayed out and fell to P15, then ran wide at Turn 1 late on and dropped from P7 to P9. Stella called the tyre choice “an incorrect judgement about the crossover point”. He also said McLaren’s simulations had overestimated the car, and its data review found no anomalies to explain the gap. Stella rated McLaren only fourth in the pecking order at Sepang, and Piastri conceded the team is no longer fighting for wins.

“Ultimately it was an incorrect judgment about the crossover point at which dry tires would be faster than intermediates.” — Andrea Stella, McLaren

For fantasy: Selling Norris for Verstappen at R16 gained 41 points on the round (+16 v +57). McLaren’s straight-line weakness has been joined by an unexplained overall pace deficit. Avoid McLaren assets at R17, although Singapore’s slow corners suit the car better than Sepang’s straights did.

Racing Bulls: double points from the back half of the grid. Lindblad took his 30-place penalty, towed Lawson in Q2, and then went P22 → P10 on the team’s intermediate call. Lawson had “one of the best starts” of his career on his way to P7. Racing Bulls are now 22 points clear in P5 in the constructors’ championship. The Baku friction is not resolved: Jolyon Palmer said Lindblad had been playing “not a good team game” with Lawson at Sepang.

“It feels great to be taking home double points from the Bahrain GP in Malaysia, as we continue to fight for P5 in the Championship.” — Liam Lawson

For fantasy: Racing Bulls +53 and Lindblad +28, both on the platform’s places-gained scale (see content/prices/R16-Prices.md). Lindblad’s new power-unit parts mean no penalty is likely soon. Singapore is a hard place to overtake, so the back-of-grid recoveries that paid at Baku and Sepang will be harder to repeat.

Driver Watch

Driver	Price	Trend	Note
Max Verstappen	$27.9M	↑	Pole, win, fastest lap, DotD: +57. 37 · 38 · 43 · 57 over four rounds. Spare PU parts in every category. The strongest form in the game going into the last sprint weekend.
Kimi Antonelli	$27.0M	↑	P2 (+29), title lead 84 with seven rounds left, and he can clinch as early as Austin. Still 24.1 pts/$M. But Mercedes struggled for pace: “we struggled more than usual”. Their upgrade underperformed, and Singapore’s slow corners are where they struggled at Sepang.
George Russell	$28.0M	↓	PU failure from P3 (−5). Back of the grid for Sunday’s race at Singapore (at least 10 places); the sprint is unaffected. Says the title is “exceptionally unlikely”. Avoid: the priciest driver, with half a weekend.
Lewis Hamilton	$24.3M	↓	Front row, then P3 after falling to about P17 on slicks (+32). Missed DotD by 0.6 points of vote share. Third straight price fall, and 17.6 pts/$M. No spare PU parts.
Charles Leclerc	$23.8M	↑	P4 (+33), his three-round price slide halted. Wants better strategy from Ferrari: “Red Bull always gets it right”. No spare PU parts.
Isack Hadjar	$15.7M	↑	Qualified P3 and started P8 on a seventh ICE, then lost the podium with “no battery” (+25). Every further PU change costs five places. Red Bull are investigating the car. Season-high price, 29% owned.
Lando Norris	$26.4M	↓	Started on slicks, fell to P15, then ran through the gravel late (+16). McLaren rate themselves fourth. Avoid.
Oscar Piastri	$23.7M	↓	Pitted for intermediates early, finished P6 (+29). “No longer fighting for wins.” 10.8 pts/$M.
Liam Lawson	$9.3M	↑	“One of the best starts” of his career, P11 → P7 (+17). 16.2 pts/$M, the best value under $20M. Racing Bulls teammate friction.
Arvid Lindblad	$9.4M	↑	P22 → P10 after a 30-place penalty (+28). Fresh PU parts. Season-high price, 45% owned. Singapore makes recoveries harder.
Nico Hülkenberg	$6.0M	↑	P15 → P11 (+19), a fifth straight max rise, +67% on our $3.6M. All of his recent points came from overtakes, which is the hardest thing to score at Singapore. Sell-high candidate.
Esteban Ocon	$9.3M	↑	P15 (+12). 16.0 pts/$M.
Fernando Alonso	$5.6M	↓	Season-best P8 (+17), Aston Martin’s best weekend, and he still took a max cut. 11.2% of the DotD vote. One result, not a trend.
Franco Colapinto	$9.4M	↓	15-place drop, P21 → P13 (+13). Penalties served, so he starts clean at Singapore.
Gabriel Bortoleto	$7.6M	↓	Q3 (P10), then P18 (+4). Third straight fall.
Valtteri Bottas	$3.0M	↓	Spun out on lap 9 (−20), back on the floor price.

Trend key: ↑ rising · ↓ falling · → flat

Fantasy Implications

Our R16 Team Result Summary: 279 pts, our best round since R12 (full detail in content/fantasy/R16-Results.md)

Pick	Grid	Finish	Verdict
Kimi Antonelli (⚡ 2×)	P3	P2	58 pts (29 × 2). The boost rule kept it on him. A Verstappen boost would have scored 28 more.
Max Verstappen	P1	P1	57 pts. Pole, win, fastest lap, DotD. The Norris → Verstappen transfer gained 41.
Arvid Lindblad	P22	P10	28 pts from 12 places gained and 15 overtakes.
Isack Hadjar	P8	P5	25 pts. Lost a podium to the grid drop and a late battery shortfall.
Nico Hülkenberg	P15	P11	19 pts, almost all from overtakes.
Racing Bulls (C)	—	—	53 pts. Both cars scored from the back half of the grid.
Mercedes (C)	—	—	39 pts. Russell’s PU failure (−5) made Ferrari → Mercedes a −41 swap on the round.

Three questions from the R16 files are now answered.

Hadjar’s P3 → P8 was a five-place drop for a seventh ICE.
Lindblad’s P22 was a 30-place penalty for a fifth ICE, turbocharger and exhaust, and he set no Q2 time because he was towing Lawson.
Russell’s stop was a power-unit failure.

Driver of the Day was Verstappen. That makes Red Bull’s constructor leftover +5 if DotD counts for constructors, or +15 if it doesn’t. Red Bull also had the fastest pitstop, so the R15 question stays open.