Team

Driver	Team	Price	Delta	Boost
Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	$25.6M	↑$0.3M	⚡ 2× Boost
Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	$24.9M	↑$0.1M	—
Isack Hadjar	Red Bull Racing	$13.9M	↑$0.6M	—
Liam Lawson	Racing Bulls	$9.7M	↑$0.2M	—
Arvid Lindblad	Racing Bulls	$7.4M	↑$0.6M	IN

Constructor	Price	Delta
Ferrari	$26.3M	↑$0.3M
Racing Bulls	$12.3M	↑$0.6M

Squad value $120.1M · $5.2M in bank · Chip: None (Limitless banked for R12) · Penalty: None — 1 of 2 free transfers used (1 rolls to R12)

R11 Hungarian GP (Hungaroring) is a standard weekend — one scoring race, boost applies to the Grand Prix score. One transfer made: Colapinto → Lindblad. The boost returns to Antonelli after the R10 hedge.

Changes from R10

#	Out	In	Net
1	Franco Colapinto — $11.0M	Arvid Lindblad — $7.4M	+$3.6M to bank

1 of 2 free transfers used. 1 free transfer rolls to R12 — the rollover cap is 1 either way, so this transfer costs nothing in future flexibility: R12 opens with 2 available whether we spend one here or hold. No penalty. Bank rises from $1.6M to $5.2M, the most headroom we have had all season.

Justifications

Franco Colapinto (OUT) — $11.0M. The circuit kills the only edge he has. Colapinto’s entire case has been recovery drives on overtaking circuits — P13→P10 Barcelona, P16→P15 Austria, P19→P9 Silverstone — and the Hungaroring is the hardest track on the calendar to pass at, with no meaningful straights and Monaco-level downforce. He is also the squad’s clearest overvaluation: two consecutive maximum price rises (+$0.6M each) on an 8-point round, taking him from $9.8M to $11.0M in two races while his output fell. Alpine’s own verdict on Spa was that the performance was “not good enough.” Selling an $11.0M asset whose skill is neutralised by the venue, at the top of its price, is the cleanest move on the board.

Arvid Lindblad (IN) — $7.4M. The single most concrete piece of evidence out of R10. Racing Bulls brought one upgraded VCARB 03 to Spa — new engine cover, roll hoop, front corner and rear wing — and Lindblad had it, qualifying P8 and finishing P9; old-spec Lawson qualified P11 and finished P12. This is not a form read, it is a hardware difference. Three things make it travel to Budapest: the upgrade is aerodynamic, and the Hungaroring is the most aero-dependent circuit of the year; Lindblad expects it to be more effective here than at Spa; and he double-counts through the Racing Bulls constructor we already own. At $7.4M he is the cheapest genuine points threat in the game — the transfer frees $3.6M while upgrading the slot.

On the triple Racing Bulls exposure — deliberately taken, and not inconsistent with R10. The R10 picks file rejected Leclerc specifically to avoid tripling Ferrari exposure, so this needs squaring. Three differences justify the opposite call: (1) cost — Leclerc was a $23.3M premium; Lindblad is $7.4M, so the concentration is cheap rather than capital-intensive; (2) evidence type — the Leclerc case rested on a single race result, which is not a trend, while this rests on a hardware upgrade now fitted to both cars, a structural change; (3) portfolio shape — adding Lindblad completes a team we already back rather than stacking a second premium behind one we do. Racing Bulls exposure is $29.4M of $120.1M (24%). The downside is real and acknowledged: a bad Racing Bulls weekend now blanks three slots at once.

Kimi Antonelli (HOLD) — $25.6M. Six wins in ten, a 45-point championship lead, and first driver past 400 season fantasy points (401). The Spa engine problem was a straight-line power deficit — Wolff: “an issue on all Mercedes engines that we lacked the power out on the straights” — and the Hungaroring has no meaningful straights, so the weakness is close to irrelevant here. He won at Spa carrying that deficit. Hold, and boost (below).

Lewis Hamilton (HOLD) — $24.9M. An eight-time Hungarian GP winner in a Ferrari whose high-downforce, medium-speed profile is the best fit on the grid for this circuit, coming off P2+P4 at a track that did not suit Ferrari. Vasseur: “small step by small step, we are catching up.” His Spa P4 came with a five-second penalty he attributed to his own qualifying error, so the underlying pace was better than the result. He also double-counts through the Ferrari constructor.

Isack Hadjar (HOLD) — $13.9M. A genuine hold-with-a-caveat. The positives are strong: “top-three pace” per Mekies, a fastest-ten-lap average at Spa (1:49.727) that beat Verstappen’s (1:49.809), three straight top-six finishes, and the 30-place PU penalty is now served, so he starts where he qualifies. The caveat is that his 38 points at Spa were entirely race-day — 8 for the finish plus 30 in position bonuses — and Hungary suppresses exactly that scoring mechanism. At $13.9M he is now the most expensive midfielder in the game and the squad’s weakest price-to-role fit. Held because his qualifying pace is real (P10 on merit at Spa, P5 at Silverstone) and no affordable upgrade exists, but he is the first sell candidate for R12 if Budapest exposes him.

Liam Lawson (HOLD) — $9.7M. A reversal of the R10 results-file read that he was the first transfer out. His P12 was an old-spec car, not a form collapse: “Every single wheel-to-wheel combat I had today, I lost on the straights”, with his engineer conceding “there was something not right.” He receives Lindblad’s upgrade at Budapest. Selling a driver the week his car gets fixed, at the bottom of his output, is the textbook buy-low trap in reverse. Hold.

Ferrari (HOLD) — $26.3M. 71 points at Spa, the second-best constructor haul of our season, from P2 + P4 at a circuit Ferrari expected to struggle at. Budapest should suit the SF-26 better than Spa did. Hamilton double-counts here.

Racing Bulls (HOLD) — $12.3M. Rose $0.6M off its worst round since R08, which was a warning — but the cause is now fixed. Both cars run the upgraded spec for the first time at Budapest, at the circuit type the upgrade most rewards. At $12.3M with two upgraded cars, the double-score returns.

Squad complete: Antonelli, Hamilton, Hadjar, Lawson, Lindblad, Ferrari C, Racing Bulls C — every slot justified above.

Boost Pick

Kimi Antonelli — Mercedes, $25.6M

The 2× returns to Antonelli after one round away, and the reasoning is a direct correction of the R10 error rather than a change of view. At Spa the boost was hedged onto Hamilton on reliability grounds; Antonelli then took pole by 0.534 over Hamilton and won, and the hedge cost 32 points (44 instead of 76). Three things say the hedge was wrong then and is wrong now:

• The reliability case has weakened, not strengthened. The Spa failure hit Russell, not Antonelli — his battery stopped recharging at Turn 1 and he was at 0% by Eau Rouge. Antonelli ran clean, took pole and won. The “two DNF-adjacent failures in three rounds” pattern that drove the hedge has not extended.
• The known Mercedes weakness is neutralised by this circuit. The confirmed problem is straight-line power across all Mercedes engines. The Hungaroring runs Monaco-level downforce with effectively no straights — this is the single best venue on the calendar for a car with a power deficit and a strong chassis.
• He is the highest-ceiling asset we own by a wide margin. Six wins in ten, 401 season fantasy points, 45 clear in the championship.

The live alternative is Hamilton on venue fit — eight Hungaroring wins and a Ferrari suited to the track. He is the hedge, and we have just measured what the hedge costs.

Flip clause — and the process fix that matters more than the clause. Revert the 2× to Hamilton only if qualifying shows Ferrari ahead of Mercedes at Budapest and Hamilton out-qualifying Leclerc. The R10 clause was written in almost identical terms, triggered, and was never acted on because nothing in the workflow reopened the decision after the grid was set. Action item: check this clause explicitly after qualifying, before the R11 lock. A conditional that is never re-evaluated is not a hedge, it is a note.

Chip: none. R11 Hungary is a standard weekend — the wrong window for Limitless, which needs a sprint’s two scoring events and a dominant car to justify uncapping the budget. Limitless stays banked for R12 Dutch (Zandvoort, the next sprint), with R16 Singapore the fallback. Wildcard and No Negative remain in reserve. R11 being the last round before the three-week summer break is a reason to hold flexibility, not spend it — and the $5.2M bank plus a rolled transfer means we arrive at Zandvoort with real room to restructure.