Team

Driver	Team	Price	Delta	Boost
Max Verstappen	Red Bull Racing	$27.9M	↑$0.3M	⚡ 2× Boost
Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	$27.0M	↑$0.1M	—
Isack Hadjar	Red Bull Racing	$15.7M	↑$0.6M	—
Arvid Lindblad	Racing Bulls	$9.4M	↑$0.6M	—
Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	$6.0M	↑$0.6M	—

Constructor	Price	Delta
Mercedes	$34.0M	↑$0.2M
Racing Bulls	$15.9M	↑$0.6M

$135.9M squad value · $1.6M in bank · Chip: No Negative · Penalty: None. 0 of 2 free transfers used; 1 rolls over, so R18 opens with 3

Changes from R16

#	Out	In	Net
—	No transfers	—	—

The boost moves from Antonelli to Verstappen, and No Negative is played. The seven slots are unchanged.

Justifications

⚠ Lock before Sprint Qualifying on Friday, October 9. Singapore is the last sprint weekend of the season and the first sprint ever held at Marina Bay. There is one practice session before competitive running, and two scoring events: the sprint on Saturday at 17:00 local and the 62-lap Grand Prix on Sunday at 20:00 local. Confirm the exact lock time on the platform.

Why no transfers. Every move worth making costs more than we have, and the obvious one is backed by the narrative but contradicted by the data.

The squad scored 279 at Sepang with every slot positive. Rolling a transfer costs nothing. We have 2 free; using 0 or 1 still leaves 3 at R18, since only one transfer carries over. So holding has to beat zero, not beat a free move. Here is what I checked:

Move	Cost	Verdict
Mercedes → Ferrari	frees $6.1M	Rejected: see below
Hadjar → Hamilton ($24.3M)	needs $8.6M	Unaffordable. $0.9M short even with the Ferrari money
Hadjar → Leclerc ($23.8M)	needs $8.1M	Unaffordable. $0.4M short even with the Ferrari money
Hülkenberg → Lawson / Ocon ($9.3M)	needs $3.3M	Unaffordable alone ($1.6M bank)
Hülkenberg → anything ≤ $7.6M	—	No upgrade exists. Bortoleto ($7.6M) is on three straight falls; Bearman, Alonso and Albon score less
Lindblad → Lawson / Ocon / Colapinto	frees ≤ $0.1M	A sideways move. Lindblad’s last five (7 · 11 · 8 · 17 · 28) beat all three, and he double-counts with the Racing Bulls constructor

Mercedes (HOLD) — $34.0M. The research file listed Mercedes → Ferrari as the first move to model. I’ve modelled it, and the season record says no.

The case for selling is real: Russell starts Sunday’s Grand Prix from the back of the grid after his Sepang power-unit failure, Mercedes’ upgrade “didn’t deliver the ~0.3s expected”, and Ferrari scored +80 to Mercedes’ +39 at Sepang. Against that:

Round type	Mercedes	Ferrari	Record
Street / temporary circuits (R01 AUS, R04 MIA, R05 CAN, R06 MON, R14 MAD, R15 AZE)	86.8 avg	47.8 avg	Mercedes 6–0
Monaco (R06), the closest match to Singapore	70	29	Mercedes
All 16 rounds	81.8 avg	63.0 avg	Mercedes 10–4, 2 tied
Sprint rounds (R02, R04, R05, R09, R12)	94.2 avg	82.2 avg	Mercedes 3–1, 1 tied

(Round scores are season-points deltas from content/prices/R01–R16.)

1. Mercedes have out-scored Ferrari at every street circuit this season, by 39 points a round on average. Ferrari’s best street score (69) is below Mercedes’ worst (70).
2. Russell’s penalty costs less on the platform scale than it looks. Qualifying points come from his qualifying position, not the grid (confirmed by Hadjar at Sepang: P3 qualifying scored 8 from a P8 start). The ± term then pays +1 for every place he gains from the back. Antonelli scored 28 from P16 at Baku and won Monza from P19. The sprint is unaffected, and so are the constructor’s both-in-Q3 bonus and pitstop points. The real cost is the Grand Prix finishing points he loses on a circuit where passing is hard, and Singapore’s safety-car rate offsets part of that.
3. Ferrari’s +80 came from a race that rewarded recovering from the wrong tyre call. That doesn’t carry over, and it was Ferrari’s best score since R09. Their previous four were 74 · 24 · 18 · 45.
4. Reversing the R16 swap after one round is the churn the R15 lesson warned against. One bad Mercedes round (Russell −5) is not a trend; Mercedes’ four rounds before it were 84 · 128 · 87 · 88.

The honest risk: Mercedes run split specifications at Singapore to understand the upgrade, and Wolff called their Sepang qualifying “very difficult to understand”. If Mercedes are genuinely off the pace in slow corners, this hold costs points. The street-circuit record is the best evidence we have on that question, and it is unanimous.

Isack Hadjar (HOLD) — $15.7M. He is on his seventh ICE of four, so any new power-unit part means another five-place drop, and Red Bull have not said whether he needs one here. The platform scale makes a grid drop survivable: at Sepang he qualified P3, started P8 and still scored 25, because qualifying points use the qualifying position. Mekies admitted his car “was not right” late in the race (“I had no battery”), and Red Bull are investigating. There is no affordable upgrade anyway: the drivers above him cost $8.1M+ more. Contingency: hold even if Red Bull confirm a penalty before the lock; the scale absorbs it.

Nico Hülkenberg (HOLD) — $6.0M. Five straight maximum rises, +67% on the $3.6M we paid, and a last five of 5 · 14 · 2 · 15 · 19. The research flagged him as a sell-high, because his points come from overtakes and Singapore is the hardest place to overtake. But nothing better costs ≤ $7.6M, so selling would only lock in value we keep anyway by holding while the price climbs. No Negative covers the downside this round. Revisit at R18 with 3 transfers and the Wildcard available.

Arvid Lindblad (HOLD) — $9.4M. P22 → P10 for 28 at Sepang. His new power-unit parts make a fresh penalty unlikely. The overtaking caveat applies to him too, but he also made Q3 seven rounds running (R08–R14), so he can score from the front.

Max Verstappen (HOLD) — $27.9M. Boosted (see below).

Kimi Antonelli (HOLD) — $27.0M. 651 points, 24.1 pts/$M, still the best driver value in the game, and 84 clear in the title race. He has the best record of anyone in the squad at sprint and street rounds (see Boost Pick), which is why he stays even with Mercedes’ question marks.

Racing Bulls (HOLD) — $15.9M. Sixteen maximum rises in sixteen updates, +53 at Sepang, and 22 clear in P5 in the constructors’ championship. 31.1 pts/$M, third-best constructor value behind Mercedes and Ferrari.

Not selected.

• Russell $28.0M: back of the grid on Sunday, the priciest driver.
• Ferrari $27.9M: see the Mercedes hold above.
• Hamilton $24.3M / Leclerc $23.8M: 17.6 and 16.1 pts/$M, but out of reach without selling Mercedes or a −10 hit.
• Norris / Piastri / McLaren: “fourth in the pecking order” by Stella’s own account.
• Red Bull Racing $32.4M: we already hold both its drivers.
• Bottas, Stroll, Pérez: floor tier.

Boost Pick

Max Verstappen — Red Bull Racing, $27.9M

The boost doubles the full weekend score, sprint included. The platform has shown this five times, and at R12 Zandvoort, the last sprint, Norris scored “57 × 2x” across both races. At Singapore the boost covers two scoring events.

The case is current form, against the season record. Both point in opposite directions, so here is each side:

	Verstappen	Antonelli
Last four rounds (R13–R16)	37 · 38 · 43 · 57 (avg 43.8)	93 · 35 · 28 · 29 (avg 46.3)
Last three rounds (R14–R16)	avg 46.0, ahead in all three	avg 30.7
Current-car street circuits (R14 MAD, R15 AZE)	38 · 43	35 · 28
Sprint rounds (R02, R04, R05, R09, R12)	15.2 avg	46.4 avg (4–1)
Monaco (R06)	−11	55
Negative rounds this season	3 (R06, R09, R12)	1 (R07)

I’m boosting Verstappen, for three reasons:

1. Antonelli’s sprint and Monaco records were set against a Red Bull that no longer exists. Red Bull’s turnaround is recent: Verstappen has scored 37+ in four straight rounds and beaten Antonelli in the last three, including both street circuits run since the upturn (Madrid, Baku). Sepang was his first pole and win, with Driver of the Day. Mekies called it “sustained progress… rather than a single magic upgrade”, which suggests it isn’t a one-off.
2. Mercedes are the uncertain car this weekend. The upgrade underperformed and they are running split specifications. Antonelli called Sepang P2 “the maximum we could’ve done”. One of the two Mercedes will run the specification the team trusts less.
3. No Negative removes Verstappen’s main drawback. His three negative rounds are why the boost has defaulted to Antonelli all season. If No Negative floors a negative slot at zero, a boosted Verstappen DNF costs 0, not −40. That covers the biggest downside of picking him. (The chip’s exact treatment of a boosted slot is not yet confirmed; record it in R17-Results.md.)

The counter-case, stated plainly: Antonelli’s 46.4 sprint-round average is three times Verstappen’s, and Monaco (55 v −11) is the closest circuit we have. If the early-season pattern holds at Singapore, this boost costs about 30 points. But the R16 boost rule stuck to the season-long default against current form, and it cost 28.

Post-qualifying check (if the platform allows changes after Sprint Qualifying): move the boost back to Antonelli only if he out-qualifies Verstappen by three or more places in Sprint Qualifying. That threshold is looser than R16’s two conditions, so it can actually trigger. Check it, and record that it was checked.

Chip Call

No Negative: PLAY. This is the window it has been planned for since R15:

• Two scoring events, so two chances for a negative score per slot.
• A street circuit with the highest safety-car rate on the calendar, where a single incident can end a race. Negative finishes come from DNFs (−20) and places lost from the grid (−1 each).
• Sepang showed the 2026 power units can fail with no warning: Russell’s failure, the start-procedure software glitch across several makes, and Hadjar’s “no battery”.
• Exposure in this squad: three negative Verstappen rounds this season, a Hadjar who may take another grid drop, and Lindblad and Hülkenberg starting from grid slots where their usual places-gained scoring is hardest to come by.
• Seven rounds remain and the Wildcard is planned for the Americas. If No Negative isn’t played here, the next sprint weekend never comes.

Wildcard: hold for the Americas (R18 Austin onward). Mercedes’ ADUO power unit timing, Russell’s penalty sequence and Antonelli’s possible title clinch at Austin will reshape the order. R18 also opens with 3 free transfers, because we roll one here.

R17 watch items:

• The lock: before Sprint Qualifying on Friday, October 9.
• Red Bull’s pace in FP1. If Verstappen is not in the top three in the only practice session, revisit the boost before the lock.
• Which Mercedes car runs the new specification, and whether it is Antonelli’s.
• Any Hadjar power-unit change. A five-place drop doesn’t change the hold.
• Russell’s penalty size (at least 10 places, GP only) and whether Mercedes bring the ADUO unit forward.
• How No Negative treats a boosted slot, to be recorded in the results file.
• Weather: rain is possible at a night race, and Sepang showed how a mixed-condition start reshuffles everything.