R09 — British GP
Predictions Results
93 pts
| # | Question | My Pick | 2× | Pts Available | Pts Earned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Predict the podium | Piastri · Norris · Hamilton | 2× | 82 | 48 |
| 02 | Sprint: highest finisher (Lindblad vs Bearman)? | Oliver Bearman | — | 20 | — |
| 03 | How many teams score points in the Sprint? | 6 | — | 20 | — |
| 04 | Pole position | George Russell | — | 10 | — |
| 05 | Will both Williams cars get out of Q1? | No | — | 10 | — |
| 06 | Fastest lap of the race | Max Verstappen | — | 12 | — |
| 07 | Fastest pitstop (team) | Red Bull Racing | — | 25 | — |
| 08 | Safety Car or VSC in the first 10 laps? | No | — | 15 | 15 |
| 09 | How many British drivers score points in the Grand Prix? | 4 | — | 15 | 15 |
| 10 | Will a British driver win the Grand Prix? | No | — | 15 | 15 |
| TOTAL | 224 | 93 |
Final: 93 pts · 30% accuracy (3/10 clean hits: Q8, Q9, Q10).
Q1 podium: only the Hamilton leg landed — called in the exact P3 slot, it returned 24 base, doubled to 48 by the multiplier; the Piastri (P11) and Norris (P4) legs both missed the rostrum.
Notes
Pre-race decisions:
- 2× on the podium (Q1) — placed on the only aggregate question for its EV edge (~16.5 vs the best binary ~9.0), accepting the variance.
- Deliberately excluded both Mercedes from the podium — Russell (5) and Antonelli (8) were graded the most likely podium-getters but their payouts were too low; the sheet backed the McLarens (Piastri 15, Norris 14 — Silverstone historically McLaren-strong, Norris’ home race) plus Hamilton (12, home-race uplift, cooler-track Ferrari pace).
- Faded the favourites for payout twice more — Q2 took Bearman (20) over the quicker-on-form Lindblad (10), and Q7 punted Red Bull’s world-record crew (25) over the Mercedes/Ferrari favourites.
Result:
- The doubled podium saved the sheet for the third straight time. Only Hamilton hit — a home-race P3, the exact slot we called — returning 48 of the 93. Both McLaren legs blanked: Piastri finished P11 (out of points) and Norris P4, just off the rostrum. The “Silverstone is McLaren-strong” premise simply didn’t hold this weekend.
- The Mercedes exclusion cost us across correlated questions again — the season’s recurring theme. Antonelli took pole (Q4 — we had Russell) and the fastest lap (Q6 — we had Verstappen), and Russell’s P2 (a podium leg we left off) completed a Ferrari–Mercedes rostrum lockout. Three misses trace directly to fading Mercedes on payout grounds.
- Q7 blanked — the Red Bull pitstop punt lost to Mercedes; the value read was defensible but near-random and didn’t land.
- Q2 / Q3 sprint misses — Lindblad beat Bearman (our Racing-Bulls-quicker read was correct, but we took the Bearman payout and it missed), and only 5 teams scored in the sprint, not the 6 we backed.
- The binary anchors carried the floor — 45 of 93. Q8 (no early SC/VSC), Q10 (no British winner — Leclerc won) both held, and Q9 was the standout: British point-scorers = 4 (Russell, Hamilton, Norris, Lindblad), the exact modal call the sheet flagged as its value pick over the naive “3.”
- Q5 flipped as flagged — both Williams escaped Q1 (Sainz P15, Albon P16 into Q2) at high-speed Silverstone, the upside the note warned could invert the “No.”
- Verdict: a modest 93, rescued once more by the aggregate 2× (48 on one leg) and the three high-probability binaries. The lesson repeats — leaning fully off the most-probable Mercedes outcomes is high-variance and cost four correlated questions (pole, fastest lap, and a podium leg) the round Mercedes locked out qualifying and Antonelli swept the Saturday/one-lap honours. The 2× on the aggregate podium remains correct: it returned 48 on a day only one of three legs hit.