R07 — Barcelona GP
Predictions Results
56 pts
| # | Question | My Pick | 2× | Pts Available | Pts Earned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Predict the podium | Verstappen P1 · Russell P2 · Piastri P3 | — | 34 | 16 |
| 02 | Pole position | Antonelli | — | 10 | 0 |
| 03 | Who qualifies highest (Norris vs Piastri)? | Piastri | — | 15 | 0 |
| 04 | Will Audi get a car into Q3? | No | — | 10 | 0 |
| 05 | Fastest pitstop | Ferrari | — | 10 | 0 |
| 06 | Safety Car or VSC during the GP? | Yes | ✓ | 30 | 30 |
| 07 | Who finishes ahead in the Grand Prix? | Sainz | — | 18 | 0 |
| 08 | Where does Isack Hadjar finish? | 4th–10th | — | 10 | 10 |
| 09 | Who sets the fastest lap? | Lawson | — | 50 | 0 |
| 10 | How many classified finishers? | 18 | — | 15 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 56 |
Notes
Pre-race decisions:
- Q6 took the 2× multiplier on Safety Car/VSC — at ~77% probability the 30-pt payout (15 × 2 × 0.77 = 23.1 EV) was the highest 2× EV on the sheet, ahead of Q4’s higher-certainty/lower-ceiling line (18.6) and Q3 (17.4). The single best decision of the round.
- Three deliberate contrarian higher-payout picks drove the EV model: Q1 excluded the near-certain Antonelli from the podium in favour of Verstappen/Russell/Piastri (combined 12.72 EV vs ≤11.95 with Antonelli in); Q7 took home-race Sainz (18 pts) over market-favourite Gasly; Q3 took Piastri over Norris on the third-PU retirement risk.
- The Mercedes qualifying picks (Q2 Antonelli pole, Q1 framing) were built on five poles from six rounds — with an explicit caveat that the FIA hot-test compression rule, debuting at Barcelona, was the one mechanism that could close the gap.
Result — 56 pts / 20% accuracy:
- Q1 partial ✓ (16 pts): Podium was Hamilton · Russell · Norris. Russell landed P2 exactly as picked (+16). Verstappen finished P4 and Piastri P5 — both off the podium. 16 of 34.
- Q2 ✗ (0 pts): Russell took pole; Antonelli only managed P3 in qualifying — his first non-pole of the season. The hot-test rule caveat played out precisely: Mercedes’ single-lap edge narrowed and Antonelli was the car that lost out.
- Q3 ✗ (0 pts): Norris out-qualified Piastri (P4 vs P7). The third-PU retirement risk never materialised — Norris was simply quicker in Q3.
- Q4 ✗ (0 pts): Hülkenberg dragged the Audi into Q3 for P9 — the team’s first Q3 appearance of 2026, breaking a six-round model in the one round we backed it.
- Q5 ✗ (0 pts): McLaren set the fastest pitstop again, as at Monaco. Second straight miss on the Ferrari default; the field’s pit-crew parity is now a consistent pattern, not variance.
- Q6 ✓ 2× (30 pts): Five non-finishers (Albon, Alonso, Hülkenberg, Bottas, Stroll) made a Safety Car/VSC a near-formality. 30 pts — 54% of the round total and the only thing that kept the sheet respectable. The 2× target was correct by a wide margin.
- Q7 ✗ (0 pts): Gasly (P7) finished ahead of the group — Colapinto P10, Sainz P12, Albon DNF. The home-race Sainz thesis failed; Williams simply lacked the pace at Barcelona and the higher-payout gamble didn’t pay.
- Q8 ✓ (10 pts): Hadjar finished P6 — squarely inside the 4th–10th band. Red Bull’s clean-running floor delivered exactly as modelled.
- Q9 ✗ (0 pts): Hamilton set the fastest lap (1:20.122, lap 44) on his way to the win. As flagged pre-race, this was a low-EV question and the front-runner took it; the midfield Lawson punt never had a realistic route.
- Q10 ✗ (0 pts): 17 classified finishers (5 DNFs), not 18 — one short. The 2026 attrition rate did transfer to a power circuit after all; the 17 alternative explicitly noted in the pre-race reasoning (3.24 EV) would have scored.
Verdict: The 2× on Q6 carried the round; outside it, only Q8 and the Russell slot in Q1 hit. The hot-test rule flipped both Mercedes qualifying picks (Antonelli pole, the Q1 ordering), and all three contrarian higher-payout gambles — Sainz, Piastri, Lawson FL — missed. A 56-pt floor on a sheet where the EV-optimal multiplier landed and the speculative tails didn’t.