R06 — Monaco GP
Predictions Results
88 pts
| # | Question | My Pick | 2× | Pts Available | Pts Earned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Predict the podium | Antonelli P1 · Leclerc P2 · Hamilton P3 | — | 43 | 28 |
| 02 | Pole position | Russell | — | 12 | 0 |
| 03 | Who qualifies highest (Hamilton vs Verstappen)? | Hamilton | — | 15 | 0 |
| 04 | Will Aston Martin get a car into Q2? | No | — | 10 | 10 |
| 05 | Fastest pitstop | Ferrari | — | 10 | 0 |
| 06 | How many red flags in Sunday’s race? | 0 | — | 20 | 0 |
| 07 | Who finishes ahead in the Grand Prix? | Hadjar | — | 10 | 10 |
| 08 | Where does Franco Colapinto finish? | 4th–10th | — | 15 | 0 |
| 09 | Who sets the fastest lap? | Antonelli | — | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Will all 22 cars complete the first lap? | No | ✓ | 30 | 30 |
| TOTAL | 88 |
Notes
Pre-race decisions:
- Q10 took the 2× multiplier over Q3 or Q6 — Monaco’s first-lap attrition probability (≥80%) with 15 pts × 2 = 30 potential was the highest EV pick on the sheet. Q6 zero flags (20 × ~47% = 9.4 EV with no multiplier; 18.8 with 2×) and Q3 Hamilton (15 × ~58% = 8.7; 17.4 with 2×) both trailed Q10 (30 × ~82% = 24.6 with 2×).
- Q1 podium was built around the EV structure: Antonelli P1 (10 pts, certainty anchor), Hamilton P3 (18 pts, highest payout in the likely column), Leclerc P2 (15 pts, Monaco circuit knowledge plus Ferrari form). The Leclerc slot was the key high-risk/high-reward pick.
- Q2 went Russell over Antonelli — Canada pole data showed Russell’s one-lap advantage (68ms) and Monaco’s qualifying rhythm suited his clinical style over Antonelli’s aggressive entries.
Result:
- Q1 partial ✓ (28 pts): Antonelli P1 correct (+10). Hamilton finished P2 rather than P3 but was still on the podium — earning full credit (+18). Leclerc DNF’d from P4 on lap 64, costing the P2 slot entirely (0 pts). 28 of 43 available.
- Q2 ✗ (0 pts): Antonelli took pole from P1 to finish; Russell qualified P6. The Canada pole advantage did not carry to Monaco and Russell’s qualifying round was unremarkable.
- Q3 ✗ (0 pts): Verstappen qualified P2, Hamilton P3. The Hamilton circuit-knowledge call was off by one row — Red Bull’s low-speed aero package was genuinely competitive at Monaco.
- Q4 ✓ (10 pts): Both Astons failed Q1 again — Alonso P21, Stroll P22. The structural uncompetitiveness of the car is consistent across all circuit types now.
- Q5 ✗ (0 pts): McLaren set the fastest pitstop, not Ferrari. Fifth miss on this question from six rounds; the game’s low-payout (10 pts) markets this as Ferrari but the field has clearly caught up on pit crew execution.
- Q6 ✗ (0 pts): One red flag was shown — Verstappen’s start-line failure triggered a race restart procedure. The 0-flag prediction correctly assessed Monaco’s low red-flag base rate but didn’t account for the elevated start-grid incident risk from complex 2026 hybrid systems.
- Q7 ✓ (10 pts): Hadjar finished P4 on the revised classification — still comfortably ahead of the entire comparison group (Lawson P6, Lindblad P7, Bearman DNF, Bortoleto P11). The Red Bull track-position advantage at Monaco delivered exactly as modelled; the result is unchanged.
- Q8 ✗ (0 pts): Colapinto finished P14 (11th–22nd band). The Alpine optimism was misplaced — P14 qualifying left no route to the points band at a circuit where overtaking is essentially impossible.
- Q9 ✓ (10 pts): Antonelli fastest lap on lap 76 (1:13.481). Correct and routine — four fastest laps from six race starts this season.
- Q10 ✓ 2× (30 pts): Verstappen failed on the start grid (0 laps, DNF), confirming first-lap attrition before the field even left the grid. The 2× multiplier was the single largest points contributor of the round and the correct call by a wide margin.