R03 — Japanese GP
Predictions Results
87 pts
| # | Question | My Pick | 2× | Pts Available | Pts Earned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Predict the podium | Antonelli · Russell · Hamilton | ✓ | 84 | 28 |
| 02 | Pole position | Antonelli | — | 12 | 12 |
| 03 | Hadjar or Bearman — highest qualifying | Bearman | — | 15 | 0 |
| 04 | Teams with a driver in Q3 | 7 | — | 20 | 20 |
| 05 | Fastest pitstop | Red Bull | — | 12 | 0 |
| 06 | Fastest lap | Antonelli | — | 12 | 12 |
| 07 | Gasly / Lawson / Sainz / Bortoleto — highest finisher | Lawson | — | 15 | 0 |
| 08 | SC or VSC in first 10 laps | No | — | 15 | 15 |
| 09 | Classified finishers | <15 | — | 30 | 0 |
| 10 | McLaren or Red Bull — most points | Red Bull | — | 15 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 87 |
Notes
Pre-race decisions:
- Q1 Podium given the 2× multiplier — highest max payout on the sheet, and the partial credit structure makes Mercedes dominance almost guaranteed to score something. Antonelli for P1, Russell for P2, Hamilton over Leclerc for P3 (stronger China race pace, Suzuka straight-line concern for Ferrari).
- Q8 changed from No to Yes — 2/2 base rate for SC/VSC in first 10 laps in 2026, plus Aston Martin near-certain DNF and Red Bull reliability cloud argued for the historical pattern holding.
Result:
- Q1 (28 pts): Antonelli P1 correct — 14 pts × 2× = 28. Russell P2 wrong (Piastri took P2, his first finish of 2026 after McLaren recovered). Hamilton P3 wrong (Leclerc took P3 in a direct fight with Russell). Partial credit via the multiplier saved the question.
- Q2 ✓ (12 pts): Antonelli pole, as predicted. Third consecutive pole.
- Q3 ✗ (0 pts): Hadjar qualified P8, Bearman P18 — the wrong call. Hadjar’s Red Bull pace in qualifying was stronger than Bearman’s Haas despite Bearman’s race form this season.
- Q4 ✓ (20 pts): Exactly 7 teams in Q3 — Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, Alpine, Red Bull, Audi, Racing Bulls. The Racing Bulls / Audi push into Q3 held up.
- Q5 ✗ (0 pts): Red Bull did not take fastest pitstop. 0 pts.
- Q6 ✓ (12 pts): Antonelli fastest lap on Lap 49. Three from three.
- Q7 ✗ (0 pts): Gasly finished P7 (the group’s highest), not Lawson (P9). SC timing and Gasly’s strong pace at Suzuka were the difference — Lawson was the right call on base rate but Gasly outperformed.
- Q8 ✓ (15 pts): No SC or VSC in the first 10 laps — the Safety Car was triggered by Bearman’s crash on Lap 22. The 2/2 historical pattern didn’t hold; the 15 pts for No is the correct score.
- Q9 ✗ (0 pts): 20 classified finishers — well above the <15 threshold. Only Bearman and Stroll failed to finish, far fewer retirements than R1 or R2.
- Q10 ✗ (0 pts): McLaren scored 28 pts (Piastri P2 + Norris P5) vs Red Bull’s 4 pts (Verstappen P8). The McLaren PU fix held; Red Bull’s car remained uncompetitive. Wrong call.